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Monthly Budget Review for September 2014 1 (October 8, 2014)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo1888 and id is 1 raw text is: Monthly Budget Review for September 2014 The federal government ran a budget deficit of $486 billion in fiscal year 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates-$195 billion less than the shortfall recorded in fiscal year 2013, and the smallest deficit recorded since 2008. Relative to the size of the economy, that deficit-at an estimated 2.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)-was slightly below the average experienced over the past 40 years, and 2014 was the fifth consecutive year in which the deficit declined as a percentage of GDP since peaking at 9.8 percent in 2009. By CBO's estimate, revenues were about 9 percent higher and outlays were about 1 percent higher in 2014 than they were in the previous fiscal year. CBO's deficit estimate is based on data from the Daily Treasury Statements; the Treasury Department will report the actual deficit for fiscal year 2014 later this month. A deficit of $486 billion for 2014 would be $20 billion smaller than the shortfall that CBO projected in its August 2014 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024. Revenues exceeded the August projection by $7 billion and outlays fell short by $13 billion, according to CBO's current estimates. Fiscal Year Totals (Billions of dollars) Actual, FY 2013 Preliminary. FY 2014 Estimated~ Change Receipts 2,774 3,013 239 Outlays 3,454 3,499 44 Deficit (-) -680 -486 195 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for August 2014 and the Daily Treasury Statements for September 2014. Note: FY = fiscal year. Total Receipts: Up by 9 Percent in Fiscal Year 2014 Receipts for fiscal year 2014 totaled $3,013 billion, CBO estimates-$239 billion more than receipts in fiscal year 2013. The largest increases were the following: m Individual income taxes and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $154 billion, or 7 percent. o Accounting for the bulk of that gain were amounts withheld from workers' paychecks, which increased by $114 billion (or 6 percent). Growth in wages and salaries explains most of the increase in withheld receipts, but almost one-third of it stemmed from changes in law. In particular, the tax rates in effect from October 2013 through December 2013 were higher than those in effect during the same span the year before because of two changes that took effect in January 2013: the expiration of the 2 percentage-point cut in payroll taxes and an increase in tax rates for income above certain thresholds. o Nonwithheld receipts rose by $43 billion (or 9 percent), largely reflecting the difference between estimated tax payments made in fiscal years 2013 and 2014. Most of those higher payments were for the 2014 tax year, but some were for the 2013 tax year. The increase in nonwithheld receipts was slightly offset by income tax refunds that were up Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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