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Letter to the Honorable Paul Ryan Regarding Federal Spending for Major Mandatory Spending Programs and Tax Credits that are Primarily Means-Tested 1 (March 25, 2014)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo1529 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE                     Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director
U.S. Congress
Washington, DC 20515
March 25, 2014
Honorable Paul Ryan
Chairman
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington DC 20515
Dear Mr. Chairman:
As you requested, enclosed are two tables that show federal spending for each of the
government's major mandatory spending programs and tax credits that are primarily
means-tested (that is, spending programs and tax credits that provide cash payments or
assistance in obtaining health care, food, or education to people with relatively low
income or few assets). Table 1 shows CBO's baseline projections for the 2014-2024
period; Table 2 shows historical spending data from 2004 through 2013, along with
CBO's estimates for 2014.
The tables include total spending for mandatory programs that are primarily not means-
tested, but they do not include separate entries for individual programs in that group that
have means-tested components (for example, student loans and some portions of
Medicare, other than low-income subsidies for Part D). They also do not include means-
tested programs that are discretionary (for example, the Section 8 housing assistance
programs and the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program). However, the tables
show discretionary spending for the Pell Grant program as a memorandum item because
that program has both discretionary and mandatory spending components and the amount
of the mandatory Pell grant component is partially dependent on the annual amount of
discretionary funding.
In CBO's latest baseline projections, published in The Budget and Economic Outlook.
2014 to 2024 (February 2014), mandatory outlays for both means-tested and non-means-
tested programs are projected to grow over the next decade at an average annual rate of
5.4 percent (see Table 1).
Overall, the growth rates projected for total mandatory spending over the coming decade
are slower than those experienced in the past 10 years--by about one-half percentage
point per year, on average. Uver the 2005-2014 period, CBO estimates that total
mandatory outlays will have increased at an average annual rate of 6.0 percent--means-
tested programs by an average of 6.8 percent per year and non-means-tested programs by

5.7 percent per year (see Table 2).

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