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March 2012 Medicare Baseline 1 (March 2012)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10670 and id is 1 raw text is: MEDICARE TOTALS (in billions of dollars)
Mandatory Outlays (a) (b)
Discretionary Outlays
Total Outlays
Total Offsetting Receipts (c)
Net Outlays (Total Outlays - Receipts)
Net Mandatory Outlays (Mandatory Outlays - Receipts) (d)

COMPONENTS OF MANDATORY OUTLAYS (in billions of dollars)
Benefits
Part A (e)
Part B (e)
Part D
Budget Control Act Sequestration (Medicare benefits subject to the 2 percent limit) (f)
Total Benefits
Mandatory Administration (g)
Total Mandatory Outlays

Annual Growth Rates
Total Outlays
Total Offsetting Receipts
Net Outlays (Total Outlays - Receipts)

Memorandum
Number of Capitation Payments (h)
Mandatory Benefits, net of recoveries, adjusted for timing shifts, billions of dollars (h) (i)
Annual growth rate (in percent)
Notes:

559.6    569.4   599.3
5.7      6.3      6.6
565.3    575.7    605.9
-79.7   -83.8    -95.7
485.6    491.9   510.2
479.9    485.6   503.6
260.2    264.0   282.4
230.7    242.6   247.8
65.8     60.1     71.1
0        0     -4.6
556.8    566.7    596.8
2.9      2.7      2.5
559.6    569.4   599.3
7.6%     1.8%    5.2%
7.7%     5.2%    14.2%
7.6%     1.3%    3.7%
13       11       12
531.4    571.0   585.7
4.3%     7.4%    2.6%

623.5    651.5
7.0      7.4
630.5    659.0
-96.4  -100.1
534.1    558.9
527.1    551.4
297.9    305.5
254.1    266.9
78.2     86.0
-8.6    -9.1
621.5    649.3
2.0      2.2
623.5    651.5
4.1%     4.5%
0.7%     3.8%
4.7%     4.6%
12      12
610.0    637.0
4.1%     4.4%

707.0
7.9
714.8
-107.3
607.6
599.7
324.1
288.2
102.4
-9.9
704.8
2.2
707.0

731.0
8.3
739.3
-115.2
624.1
615.7
332.2
301.5
105.6
-10.5
728.8
2.2
731.0

760.8
8.8
769.6
-124.0
645.6
636.8
344.7
317.1
107.9
-11.3
758.4
2.3
760.8

830.6   887.5
9.4     9.9
840.0   897.4
-133.3  -140.3
706.7   757.1
697.3   747.2
366.8   386.3
344.2   368.9
129.5   143.0
-12.1   -12.9
828.4   885.3
2.2     2.2
830.6   887.5

948.4  1,047.0
10.5     11.2
959.0  1,058.1
-150.6  -163.2
808.4    894.9
797.8    883.8
407.1    436.0
395.3    430.9
157.5    184.3
-13.7    -6.6
946.2  1,044.6
2.3      2.4
948.4  1,047.0

8.5%      3.4%      4.1%      9.2%      6.8%      6.9%    10.3%
7.2%      7.4%      7.6%      7.5%      5.3%      7.3%     8.3%
8.7%      2.7%      3.4%      9.5%      7.1%      6.8%    10.7%

13       12        11       12       12
673.5    713.6     761.3    811.7    867.4
5.7%     6.0%      6.7%     6.6%     6.9%

12       13
927.1    999.2
6.9%     7.8%

(a) Average annual rate of growth of mandatory outlays from 2012 through 2022 is 6.3 percent.
(b) Mandatory outlays include the effects of sequestration on spending for Medicare benefits.
(c) Offsetting receipts include premiums, amounts paid to providers and later recovered, and phased-down state contribution (clawback) payments from the states to Part D. They also reflect the effect of sequestrat
spending for Medicare benefits.
(d) Average annual rate of growth of net mandatory outlays from 2012 through 2022 is 6.2 percent.
(e) CBO actual 2011 Part A and Part B outlays were adjusted for a September 2011 trust fund allocation error of about $2 billion. Outlays shown reflect higher spending in Part A and lower spending in Part B than p
the Monthly Treasury Statement.
(f) The Budget Control Act of 2011 (P.L. 112-25) limits spending cuts in most Medicare benefits to 2 percent.
(9) Mandatory outlays for administration support quality improvement organizations, certain activities against fraud and abuse, and certain administrative activities funded in authorization acts. Mandatory outlays als
payment of Part B premiums for qualifying individuals through December 2012.
(h) Capitation payments to group health plans and prescription drug plans for the month of October are accelerated into the preceding fiscal year when October 1 falls on a weekend.
(i) Amounts that are paid to providers and later recovered are included in the total for mandatory Medicare spending, but the amounts are not broken out by type of provider. OBO counts the initial payment of such
outlays for benefits and the subsequent recovery as offsetting receipts to conform to the reporting in the Monthly Treasury Statement. In the past, the Medicare Trustees have reported benefits net of recoveries,
have not treated the recoveries as offsetting receipts.

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Continued

Congressional Budget Office

Page 1 of 4

March 13, 2012

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