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Evaluating CBO's Record of Economic Forecasts 1 (July 1999)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0654 and id is 1 raw text is: .Evaluating CBO's Record of Economic Forecasts EVALUATING CBO'S RECORD OF ECONOMIC FORECASTS July 30, 1999 Preface This report supplements the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) The Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update (July 1, 1999). In accordance with CBO's mandate to provide objective and impartial analysis, it contains no recommendations. The analysis was prepared by Matthew Salomon under the direction of Robert Dennis, Kim J. Kowalewski, and John F. Peterson. Ezra Finkin and Michael Simpson provided research assistance. Leah Mazade edited the report, and Sherry Snyder proofread it. Kathryn Quattrone prepared the report for final publication, and Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for CBO's World Wide Web site (www.cbo.gov). Dan L. Crippen Director July 30, 1999 Contents MEASURING THE QUALITY OF FORECASTS NOTES Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in this report are calendar years. The figures in this report use shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. Those bars extend from the peak to the trough of the recession. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Page I

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