1 U. Tol. L. Rev. 538 (1969)
Probability Analysis of Judicial Fact-Finding: A Preliminary Outline of the Subjective Approach

handle is hein.journals/utol1 and id is 558 raw text is: PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF
JUDICIAL FACT-FINDING:
A PRELIMINARY OUTLINE OF
THE SUBJECTIVE APPROACH
Alan D. Cullison*
Mathematical probability is often regarded as an abstract
theory of little practical value in analyzing courtroom decision-
making. Professor Cullison suggests, however, that a compre-
hensive probabilistic analysis of fact-finding can be extremely
useful. After discussing basic probability concepts, he outlines
an extensive probabilistic model for analyzing the judicial fact-
finding process. Application of this model will ultimately be
beneficial to a practitioner preparing his case for trial as well
as to an academician suggesting procedural or substantive re-
form in our legal system.
I. INTRODUCTION
There are a good many reasons why it might be worthwhile to in-
vestigate the judicial fact-finding process from the viewpoint of
probability theory. Of course the very process of deciding what hap-
pened in a case is at heart a matter of evaluating probabilities. More-
over, the great bulk of our trial procedures are ultimately justified by
their long-run effects (as are the rules of substantive law). And in
this, the heyday of science and technology, law courts are increasingly
confronted with scientific evidence which they are ill-equipped to
evaluate and utilize effectively. A comprehensive probabilistic analy-
sis of fact-finding can eventually be useful on several levels-for in-
*Associate Professor of Law, University of Houston; B.S., University of Chi-
cago; J.D., University of Iowa; LL.M., Yale University.

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