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84 Tul. L. Rev. 265 (2009-2010)

handle is hein.journals/tulr84 and id is 269 raw text is: Probabilities, Planning Failures, and
Environmental Law
Dave Owen*
Environmental laws often mandate specific environmental outcomes and require
agencies to adopt plans designed to achieve those outcomes. But because of pervasive
uncettainties, agencies are often unsure if their plans will succeed Decisionmakers therefore
must decide how to balance risks ofplan failure against the costs of more cautious regulatory
approaches. Tis Article explores and evaluates legal responses to these dlemmas. Ifmd that
environmental statutes and regulations use a patchwork of measures to manage these planning
uncertainties. Decisions about planning uncertainty are fiquently made on an ad hoc,
nontiansparent basis, and plans with low success odds are common.         That approach is
problematic, for it impedes public participation, increases vuinerabiity to decisionmalng
biases, and contributes to regulatory dysfunction. I therefore propose procedural and
substantive reforms designed to improve tansparency and to reduce the frequency of plan
failure.
I.     INTRODUCTION       ............................................................................. 266
II.    EXISTING APPROACHES ................................................................ 274
A  .   Fisheries .............................................................................. 275
B .    A ir  Q uality   ......................................................................... 280
C      Endangered Species ........................................................... 287
D.     National Environmental PolicyAct .................................. 294
E.      Water Quality ..................................................................... 299
E      Nuclear Waste ..................................................................... 303
G.     Climate Change .................................................................. 311
III.   REFORMING EXISTING APPROACHES ........................................... 313
A.     The Trouble with AdHoc Resolutions .............................. 315
1.    Transparency      .............................................................. 315
2.     Biases and Skewed Outcomes ................................... 319
a.    O  ptim  ism    ...................................................... 319
b.    Identifiability and Availability ..................... 322
c.    Cumulative Misperceptions .......................... 323
d.    Agency Competence and Culture ................. 326
B.     The Benefits ofHigh ProbabiliO            Standards ..................... 327
*     © 2009 Dave Owen. Associate Professor, University of Maine School of Law. I
thank Dan Farber, Oliver Houck, Josh Eagle, Jenny Wriggins, Deb Tuerkheimer, and David
Cluchey for comments on earlier drafts of this Article. I also thank the members of the
Tulane LawReview for their assistance.

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