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79 N.C. L. Rev. 1383 (2000-2001)
Drawing Effective Miority Districts: A Conceptual Framework and Some Empirical Evidence

handle is hein.journals/nclr79 and id is 1397 raw text is: DRAWING EFFECTIVE MINORITY DISTRICTS:
A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND SOME
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
BERNARD GROFMAN, LISA HANDLEY, AND DAVID LUBLIN*
When applying the Voting Rights Act, courts and commentators alike
have too often fixated on the distinction between majority-minority
districts and majority-white districts, while paying relatively little
attention to the likely electoral outcomes that any given districting plan
will actually generate. In this Article, three political scientists provide a
conceptual framework for predicting minority electoral success, taking
into account the participation rates and voting patterns of minority and
white voters, as well as incorporating the multi-stage election process
(primaries plus general elections, and sometimes runoff elections). The
Authors also analyze empirical election data to demonstrate how the
model can be applied to address voting rights disputes.
INTRODUCTION     ..................................................................................... 1384
I.     THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT AND EFFECTIVE MINORITY
D ISTRICTS  ................................................................................... 1386
II.    THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEBATE ON EFFECTIVE
MINORITY DISTRICTS ................................................................ 1390
III. AN ANALYSIS OF MINORITY DISTRICTS IN THE SOUTH IN
THE  1990S  .................................................................................... 1394
A. Black Congressional Districts in the South ....................... 1394
B. Factors that Affect the Opportunity to Elect Minority-
Preferred Candidates: Data from the U.S. House of
* The listing of co-authors is alphabetical: Bernard Grofman, School of Social
Sciences, University of California, Irvine, C.A.; Lisa Handley, Frontier International
Electoral Consulting, Washington, D.C.; David Lublin, Department of Government,
American University, Washington, D.C. This research was partially funded by grant 99-
6109, Program in Political Science, National Science Foundation (to Lublin) and grant
SBR 97-30578 (to Grofman and Anthony Marley), Program in Methodology,
Measurement and Statistics, National Science Foundation. Basic research for this Article
was begun under an earlier grant to Grofman from the Ford Foundation. We are indebted
to Clover Behrend and Annabel Azim for library assistance. Many of the ideas discussed
in this Article, including the graphic representation of the formal model, originated in
discussions between the co-authors and Sam Hirsch, an attorney with the Washington,
D.C. office of Jenner & Block.

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