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86 J. Crim. L. & Criminology 207 (1995-1996)
Firearms Costs, Firearms Benefits and the Limits of Knowledge

handle is hein.journals/jclc86 and id is 219 raw text is: 0091-4169/95/8601-0207 TH JoumooL OF CRmiwmA. LAw & CRimiNOLOGY Vol. 86, No. 1 Copyright 0 1995 by Northwestern University, School of Law Printed in U.S.A. FIREARMS COSTS, FIREARMS BENEFITS AND THE LEMITS OF KNOWLEDGE DANIEL D. POLSBY* America's intensifying dismay about violent crime has become so pervasive that one may well affirm that there is something of a na- tional crime crisis. Yet there is something of a puzzle as well. Overall crime rates in the United States have been falling for nearly twenty years. Violent crime, declining on a national basis for the last three years, has not changed dramatically since 1980, especially in compari- son to the startling run-up in serious crime that coincided with the maturation of the post-war birth cohort. The homicide rate has fluc- tuated to some extent, but despite recent increases it is still below the levels of the late 1970s and indeed, below the rates recorded though most of the 1920s. To some extent the growth of public apprehension concerning violent crime can be explained by its cumulative nature: [wle experi- ence the crime wave not as separate moments in time but as one long descending night.' When serious crime touches oneself or one's family, it is an event that is more or less present throughout one's life. The direction of crime rates should be less important, therefore, than changes in the number of people whose lives have been touched by crime. This number may constantly increase through a generation or more though the crime rate falls. It should be obvious, however, that cumulative enlargement of the circle of people who have been victim- ized by crime can be at best an incomplete explanation for the change in public attitude that is taking place. Public attitudes about crime have changed much more rapidly than the size of its population of victims. The crime crisis is a crisis of confidence in the ability of the public sector to address the crime problem constructively. As such it is very much a part of the tide of skepticism about the role of govern- * Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Northwestern University. Grateful acknowledge- ment is made to the Kirkland & Ellis Research Fund and the William M. Trumbull Re- search Fund, each of which partly subsidized the preparation of this paper. The research assistance of James K. Fitzpatrick, M.D., is also acknowledged with thanks. None of the above are to be held responsible for any of the ideas or attempted ideas expressed herein. 1 Adam Walinsky, The Crisis of Public Order, 276 ATLAirc MoNTHLYJuly 1995, at 41, 44. 207

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