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74 Judicature 6 (1990-1991)
Revisiting the Freshman Effect Hypothesis: The First Two Terms of Justice Anthony Kennedy

handle is hein.journals/judica74 and id is 8 raw text is: Revisiting the freshman effect hypothesis:
the first two terms of
Justice Anthony Kennedy
Kennedy's behavior during his first two terms on the Court cannot be described as
disoriented, uncertain or vacillating-characteristics of the freshman effect. In fact,
reports indicate he settled nicely into his new job within a short period.
by Albert P. Melone

M any believe that newly-
appointed justices to the
United States Supreme
Court exhibit behavioral
patterns collectively known as the fresh-
man effect. Three factors characterize
this phenomenon. First, these justices
are bewildered by their new duties and
responsibilities. They are awed by the
office and need several years to become
psychologically adjusted before they per-
form their duties with confidence. Sec-
ond, in an attempt to ease newly-
appointed members into the demands of
the small group setting, senior justices
do not assign their junior colleagues an
equal share of opinion writing chores.
Third, freshmen fail to align themselves
immediately with the Court's established
voting blocs. Instead, they take time to
investigate their political and interper-
sonal environment.'
We need to ascertain whether, and to
what extent, freshmen behave in this
way so that we can better understand
Supreme Court small group dynamics.
The ability of the Court to conduct its
task effectively and efficiently is pro-
foundly affected by the integration of
new members, each contributing their
fair share to the workload. Moreover, the
ability of presidents to affect immediately
the decisional outputs of the Supreme
Court may be adversely affected by the
timeliness and extent to which new ap-
pointees join existing voting coalitions.
Recent research casts doubt on the
ubiquitous nature of the so-called fresh-
man effect. Independent studies focus-
ing on Sandra Day O'Connor and
Antonin Scalia suggest that the fresh-

man effect hypothesis may be incorrect
or time bound.2 The accession of
Anthony Kennedy to the high court pro-
vides an opportunity to test the proposi-
tion once again.
Initial bewilderment
Late in their careers some justices ac-
knowledged that they were bewildered
when they came to the Supreme Court.
Justice Frankfurter commented that even
those justices who had prior judicial ex-
perience ...do not find the demands of
their new task familiar.3 Justice Bren-
nan observed that ...One enters a new
and wholly unfamiliar world when he
joins the Supreme Court....    In Justice
Murphy's case one scholar reported that,
1a minimum of three terms was required
before he was assimilated confidently
into the life and work of the court.'5
Early in their Court tenure, neither
O'Connor nor Scalia exhibited signs of
bewilderment.6 The fact that they both
had prior judicial experience and each
possessed established formulations of
This is a revision of a paper first presented at the
Midwest Political Science Association ,18th Annual
Meeting, April 5-7, 1990. 1 want to thank panel
discussants Richaid A. Brisbin, J., and Robert
Dudley lot their peiceptive insights. I profited by
the helplful criticisms ollered by ile thee atony-
mous reviewer s used by tIe JUDICATURE stall to
eletee tile manuscript. Scott Myers, my tesealch
assistat at Southeitt Illinois Univetrsity, put in
111ally houls helping to collect and to process the
data lot this study. Marc George Pulong also pto-
vided assistance. Finally, Illy IelpIul col league,
Richard Dale, lead the manuscript 101 clarity and
provided uslil suggestions lot fiiial tevision.
l. Siydet, The Supreme Court as a Small Group,
36 Soc. FoRcEs 232 (1958); Howaid, Mr. Justice
Murphy: The Freshman Years, 18 \AND. L. REv.
17't (1965); Ulncr, Toward a Theory of Sub-Group
Formation in the Supreme Court, 27 J. Pot.. 133
(1965).

the judicial role probably operated to
socialize them to the tasks ahead. The
impact of anticipatory socialization
upon Kennedy may have been similar,
no doubt closer to Scalia's federal court
of appeals experience than to O'Con-
nor's Arizona trial and appellate court
background. Yet, the extraordinary cir-
cumstances surrounding his appoint-
ment suggest that the manifest freshman
sense of bewilderment might be at work.
Kennedy joined the Court in February
1988, four months after the beginning of
the October 1987 Court Term. As the
third choice of President Reagan to fill
the position vacated by Justice Powell,
Kennedy did not undergo the intense
public interrogation of the President's
first choice, Robert Bork, or the personal
scrutiny of Douglas Ginsburg, the Ad-
ministration's second choice. Yet, the
White House failure to win senatorial
confirmation for Robert Bork probably
served to intensify Mr. Kennedy's pre-
nomination interrogation at the hands
of President Reagan's advisors. Kennedy
2. Sloi ik, Judicial Career Patterns and Major-
ity Opinion Assignments on the Supreme Court, 'I
J. Pot.. 6,10 (1979); Fleck, The Socialization of a
Freshman Justice: The Early Years of Justice Bren-
nan, 10 PACIlic L. J. 707 (1979); Heck and Hall,
Bloc Votingand the Freshman Justice Revisited, 43
J. Pot.. 852 (1981); Brennet, Another Look at
Freshman Indecisiveness on the United States Su-
preote Court, 16 PoU'ry 320 (1983); Scheb and Ail-
shic, Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and the Fresh-
man Effect, 69 JUDIcATURE 9 (1985); Rubin and
Mclone, Justice Antonin Scalia: a first year fresh-
man effect? 72 JUDICATURE 98 (1988).
3. lFrankfure, The Supreme Court in the Mir-
ror of the Justices, 105 U. PA. L. REv. 789 (1957).
'I. Brennan, National Court of Appeals: An-
other Dissent, '10 U. CI. L. REv. '184 (1983).
5. Howard, supra n. I, at 477.
6. Schell and Ailshie, supta n. 2, at 10; Rubin
and Melone, supra n. 2, at 99.

6 Judicature  Volume 74, Number 1 June-July, 1990

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