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3 CCLR 248 (2009)
Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy: A Participatory Approach

handle is hein.journals/cclr3 and id is 266 raw text is: 248 1 Stakeholder-based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy Stakeholder-based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy: A Participatory Approach Ronal Gainza-Carmenates, J. Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera, Philippe Thalmann and J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros* We performed a study to define the key elements of feasible global climate policy sce- narios for the post-2012 UNFCCC regime by contacting - through a series of question- naires - 149 stakeholders involved in climate-change discussions. We applied a Multiple Correspondence Analysis to the results. We then classified the stakeholders' views into three main groups which we associate with scenarios for post-2012 climate policy. Further, we identified three points with wide consensus among the stakeholders: (i) 2013 is the most likely starting point for the next climate agreement, (ii) flexibility mecha- nisms will most probably be pursued, and (iii) technology and financial transfers to developing countries are likely to be used as incentives for these countries to undertake a more meaningful climate policy. We found that the type of target for the United States largely determined the type of scenario the stakeholders' envisaged for the post-2012 cli- mate regime. Finally, we can associate stakeholders with a certain scenario taking into consideration their experience in climate change negotiations. I. Introduction Beginning in the early 197os, the application of sce- nario analysis to environmental issues has been a well-established field. Since then, environmental scenario analysis has been used to examine many different scales and types of environmental prob- lems, ranging from global sustainability to specific issues such as changes in emissions, air quality, or land cover in a specific region. Environmental sce- narios provide an interdisciplinary framework for analyzing complex environmental problems and envisioning solutions for these problems by, for example, establishing a link between environmen- tal science and policy.1 The study of policy scenarios allows us to exam- ine additional policy instruments and targets to those already adopted. The advantages of defining policy scenarios are that they: (i) can incorporate the views of several different stakeholders and experts simultaneously, (ii) can describe a complex system, and (iii) provide a well written, comprehensible sto- ryline, which is an interesting means of communi- cating information about future policy to policy makers.2 The analysis of policy scenarios is particu- larly important for environmental policy making * Ronal Gainza-Carmenates, PhD Candidate, Environmental Econom- ics, Research Group on the Economics and Management of the Environment, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne; J. Car- los Altamirano-Cabrera, Senior Researcher, Research Group on the Economics and Management of the Environment, Swiss Federal Insti- tute of Technology, Lausanne; Philippe Thalmann, Professor of Eco- nomics of the Natural and Built Environment, Director of the Institute of Urban and Regional Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technol- ogy, Lausanne; J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros, MSc Candidate, Environ- mental Sciences and Engineering at the Research Group on the Eco- nomics and Management of the Environment, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne. We would like to thank the 149 participat- ing stakeholders in this exploratory study for the time spent and for care taken in answering each question. We also appreciate the advice given by Yves Pedrazzini, sociologist at the Urban Sociology Laboratory at EPFL, during the design of the questionnaires. Further, we thank the editors for their useful comments, corrections and sug- gestions on our paper. Finally, this research was carried out with the financial support of the European F/P6 project TOCSIN (Technology- Oriented Cooperation and Strategies in India and China: Reinforcing in EU Dialogue with Developing Countries on Climate Change Mitigation, EU044287), and the Swiss NCCR-Climate program. 1 Joseph Alcamo, Introduction: The Case of Scenarios of the Environ- ment, in Joseph Alcamo (ed.), Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2008), pp. 1 et sqq., at p. 3. 2 Joseph Alcamo and Thomas Henrichs, Towards Guidelines for Environmental Scenario Analysis, in Joseph Alcamo (ed.), Environ- mental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2008), pp. 13 et sqq., at pp. 21, 23. CCLR 312009

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