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1 U. Tol. L. Rev. 538 (1969)
Probability Analysis of Judicial Fact-Finding: A Preliminary Outline of the Subjective Approach

handle is hein.journals/utol1 and id is 558 raw text is: PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF JUDICIAL FACT-FINDING: A PRELIMINARY OUTLINE OF THE SUBJECTIVE APPROACH Alan D. Cullison* Mathematical probability is often regarded as an abstract theory of little practical value in analyzing courtroom decision- making. Professor Cullison suggests, however, that a compre- hensive probabilistic analysis of fact-finding can be extremely useful. After discussing basic probability concepts, he outlines an extensive probabilistic model for analyzing the judicial fact- finding process. Application of this model will ultimately be beneficial to a practitioner preparing his case for trial as well as to an academician suggesting procedural or substantive re- form in our legal system. I. INTRODUCTION There are a good many reasons why it might be worthwhile to in- vestigate the judicial fact-finding process from the viewpoint of probability theory. Of course the very process of deciding what hap- pened in a case is at heart a matter of evaluating probabilities. More- over, the great bulk of our trial procedures are ultimately justified by their long-run effects (as are the rules of substantive law). And in this, the heyday of science and technology, law courts are increasingly confronted with scientific evidence which they are ill-equipped to evaluate and utilize effectively. A comprehensive probabilistic analy- sis of fact-finding can eventually be useful on several levels-for in- *Associate Professor of Law, University of Houston; B.S., University of Chi- cago; J.D., University of Iowa; LL.M., Yale University.

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